Crude Bitumen Demand

Updated June 2024

Figure S3.7 shows the historical and forecast of Alberta's demand and disposition of marketable bitumen.

Demand

In 2023

The five operating refineries in Alberta had a total processing capacity of 87.4 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d) or 550.2 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d) in 2023. Their combined utilization rate was 99%, handling an estimated daily average of

  • 51.4 103 m3/d (323.7 103 bbl/d) of upgraded bitumen, 
  • 11.7 103 m3/d (73.5 103 bbl/d) of nonupgraded bitumen,
  • 18.8 103 m3/d (118.6 103 bbl/d) of crude oil, and
  • 5.5 103 m3/d (34.4 103 bbl/d) of pentanes plus.

The total estimated Alberta demand in 2023 for upgraded and nonupgraded bitumen (which includes refinery demand and fuel demand from oil sands projects) was 71.0 103 m3/d (446.5 103 bbl/d), a 0.8% increase from 2022. Since 2021, the Sturgeon refinery has mainly processed nonupgraded bitumen rather than upgraded bitumen. 

Forecast for 2023 to 2032

Alberta’s demand for upgraded and nonupgraded bitumen is forecast to increase to 73.0 103 m3/d (459.6 103 bbl/d) by 2032. Most of the demand growth will happen in the first years of the forecast. Increased throughput at the Sturgeon refinery accounts for most of the demand growth. Upgraded bitumen continues to account for most of the total bitumen demand in the province.

Learn more about refineries in Alberta in the Plants and Facilities section.

Removals

In 2023

The breakdown of total oil removals in 2023 was as follows:

  • upgraded bitumen 128.9 103 m3/d (811.3 103 bbl/d)
  • nonupgraded bitumen 308.8 103 m3/d (1943.3 103 bbl/d)
  • crude oil 62.6 103 m3/d (393.8 103 bbl/d)
  • pentanes plus as diluent 113.5 103 m3/d (714.5 103 bbl/d)

Upgraded bitumen removals increased by 7.1% due to rising production and declining demand for synthetic crude oil. Nonupgraded removals increased by 2.8% compared with 2022, mostly driven by the growth in nonupgraded bitumen production.

Forecast for 2024 to 2033

Upgraded and nonupgraded removals are expected to increase by 2033, alongside rising production and improved pipeline capacity over the forecast period, while Alberta’s demand remains relatively stable.

The following are the removals in 2033 and the percent changes relative to 2023 levels:

  • upgraded bitumen 137.3 103 m3/d (864.0 103 bbl/d) (6.5% increase)
  • nonupgraded bitumen 382.1 103 m3/d (2404.6 103 bbl/d) (23.7% increase)
  • crude oil 64.7 103 m3/d (407.2 103 bbl/d) (3.4% increase)
  • pentanes plus as diluent 142.6 103 m3/d (897.6 103 bbl/d) (25.6% increase)

Upgraded and nonupgraded bitumen will continue to account for most of Alberta’s oil removals. Alberta’s crude bitumen removals are primarily sent to the U.S. by pipeline and rail. With the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion coming to operation in May 2024, there are shipments by sea to the U.S. West Coast or other international destinations.

Learn more about petroleum pipelines and rail transportation in Alberta in the Pipelines and Other Infrastructure section.

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