Crude Oil Demand

Updated June 2024

Figure S4.6 shows the demand history and forecast for Alberta refineries and removal of crude oil from Alberta.

Demand

In 2023

Alberta experienced slightly weakened demand in 2023, which aligns with the global economic slowdown. Alberta’s demand for crude oil decreased from 19.3 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d) or 121.4 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d) in 2022 to 18.8 103 m3/d (118.6 103 bbl/d) in 2023.

Figure S4.7 shows Alberta’s operating refineries in 2023 had an estimated total combined throughput of 87.4 103 m3/d (550.2 103 bbl/d) of crude oil equivalent, representing a 99% utilization rate of refinery capacity.

The total throughput consisted of

  • 28% crude oil and pentanes,
  • 59% synthetic crude oil, and
  • 13% nonupgraded bitumen.

Forecast for 2024 to 2033

Alberta's crude oil demand is expected to remain steady from 2024 to 2033, holding at 18.8 103 m3/d (118.6 103 bbl/d). This stability is attributed to the absence of new refineries or significant expansions in the region, signaling a period of sustained demand for crude oil.

Removals

In 2023

In 2023, 77% of the total crude oil produced was removed from the province. The oil not refined in Alberta refineries was assumed to be removed from Alberta. In 2023, the total oil removed (upgraded and nonupgraded bitumen plus crude oil and pentanes plus) was 613.8 103 m3/d (3.9 106 bbl/d), with crude oil accounting for about 10% (62.6 103 m3/d or 393.8 103 bbl/d). 

Forecast for 2024 to 2033

By 2026, crude oil removals from Alberta are expected to increase by an annual average of 5% to 72.1 103 m3/d (453.9 103 bbl/d), declining to 64.7 103 m3/d (407.2 103 bbl/d) by 2033. This trend aligns with the crude oil production forecast and Alberta's demand for crude oil remaining unchanged. 

By 2033, total oil removals are expected to increase to 726.7 103 m3/d (4.6 106 bbl/d), while the share of crude oil removals is expected to fall to about 9% due to continued growth in the removal of nonupgraded bitumen. Pipeline takeaway capacities are projected to increase during the forecast period to support increased total oil production and removals.

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