Production and Demand

Updated June 2024

Ethane

In 2023

Production: Ethane production in Alberta grew 3.1% in 2023 compared with 2022, averaging 36.3 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d) or 229.5 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d). Production growth for 2023 was supported by less ethane rejection (i.e., leaving ethane in the natural gas stream and not extracting it for use).

Demand: In 2023, Alberta’s demand for ethane grew to 41.2 103 m3/d (260.9 103 bbl/d). The demand growth for ethane in 2023 was consistent with Nova Chemical’s increased facility utilization, maintaining a low-cost position.

Alberta imports ethane via the Vantage pipeline to meet the petrochemical sector’s demand. Vantage pipeline imports increased to 5.0 103 m3/d (31.4 103 bbl/d).

Forecast for 2024 to 2033

Production: Ethane production is forecast to rise significantly, reaching 46.2 103 m3/d (292.4 103 bbl/d) by 2033. Raw natural gas production is projected to grow slightly over the next ten years; however, improved recovery economics will grow the ethane supply as more ethane is extracted from natural gas (i.e., lower ethane rejection). 

Alberta’s ethane supply capacity is underused, with excess supply assumed to be left in the natural gas stream (rejected) due to current levels of ethane processing capacity and a share of demand being satisfied by contracted imports.

Demand: Ethane demand continues to grow and will be 44.2 103 m3/d (279.7 103 bbl/d) in 2024, reaching 52.0 103 m3/d (329.1 103 bbl/d) by 2033. Growth in demand over the forecast is driven primarily by the Path2Zero expansion project, which will triple the existing ethylene and polyethylene capacity of Dow Chemical’s plant in Fort Saskatchewan.

Figure S6.1 shows Alberta’s ethane supply from natural gas and demand.

Propane

In 2023

Production: Propane production in Alberta was 37.4 103 m3/d (235.8 103 bbl/d) in 2023, down 0.7% from 2022. This decline was attributed primarily to reduced propane yields from field gas-processing facilities.

Demand: In 2023, Alberta’s demand for propane grew to 11.9 103 m3/d (75.1 103 bbl/d), up 16.5% from 2022, primarily due to increased industrial, petrochemical, and commercial demands. Inter Pipeline’s newly commissioned polypropylene and propane dehydrogenation facilities account for most of the increased demand for propane.

Forecast for 2024 to 2033

Production: Propane production is projected to grow over the forecast period, reflecting expected growth in natural gas production and continued targeting of liquids-rich gas by producers, supported by high commodity prices. Propane production is expected to increase from 42.5 103 m3/d (267.8 103 bbl/d) in 2024 to 46.6 103 m3/d (293.8 103 bbl/d) by 2033. This gradual growth aligns with the production forecast for natural gas.

Demand: Propane demand in 2024 is projected to grow by 6% compared with 2023, increasing to 12.6 103 m3/d (79.6 103 bbl/d).

Propane demand grows steadily throughout the forecast period, reaching 17.0 103 m3/d (107.3 103 bbl/d) by 2033. This increase is driven primarily by Pembina Pipeline Corp.’s feedstock requirements as part of the Redwater fractionation expansion.

Propane is exported by rail to the U.S. to meet agricultural and seasonal demand.

Figure S6.2 shows Alberta’s propane supply from natural gas and demand.

Butane

In 2023

Production: Butane production in Alberta fell marginally in 2023, averaging 22.9 103 m3/d (144.5 103 bbl/d), aligning with lower commodity prices. Excess supply is assumed to be stored or exported out of the province, including as a mixed product, such as liquified petroleum gas.

Demand: Butane demand grew 17.4% in 2023 to 19.5 103 m3/d (122.6 103 bbl/d). Demand was driven by blending with nonupgraded bitumen. 

Forecast for 2024 to 2033

Production: Butane production is projected to grow steadily throughout the forecast period at an annual average of 2.4%, reaching 29.0 103 m3/d (182.6 103 bbl/d) by 2033 as producers continue to target economically attractive liquids-rich gas plays like the Duvernay and Montney Formations. 

Demand: Butane demand is also projected to maintain steady growth, reaching 24.1 103 m3/d (151.8 103 bbl/d) by 2033, driven primarily by consistent demand for blending with nonupgraded bitumen.

Figure S6.3 shows Alberta’s butane supply from natural gas and demand.

Pentanes Plus

In 2023

Production: Pentanes plus production in Alberta grew by 1.1% in 2023 compared with 2022, averaging 58.9 103 m3/d (370.9 103 bbl/d). This increase is consistent with growth in raw natural gas production in 2023.

Demand: In 2023, Alberta’s demand for pentanes plus grew to 113.5 103 m3/d (714.5 103 bbl/d), up 1.6% from 2022, as higher bitumen production drove the increase in diluent demand.

Forecast for 2024 to 2033

Production: Pentanes plus production is projected to grow over the forecast period, reaching a high of 73.8 103 m3/d (464.5 103 bbl/d) by 2033 as producers continue targeting the liquids-rich Montney, Upper Manville, and Duvernay Formations.

Demand: Demand for pentanes plus is projected to grow, reaching 142.6 103 m3/d (897.6 103 bbl/d) by 2033. This forecast correlates with bitumen production projections over the forecast period.

Imports of pentanes plus into Alberta are also expected to increase over the next ten years to meet the forecast shortfall between supply and demand for diluent. Alberta currently imports pentanes plus by rail and pipeline (e.g., PKM's Cochin ULC and Enbridge’s Southern Lights pipeline systems).

Figure S6.4 shows Alberta’s pentanes plus supply from natural gas and demand for diluent.

Learn More