Crude Bitumen - Mining

Updated June 2024

Figure S3.1 shows the average daily production of raw bitumen in Alberta from surface mining and in situ projects. 

In 2023

In 2023, mined bitumen production increased by 1.9% to 261.9 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d) or 1648.1 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d). Three mines accounted for most of the 2023 production increase: Muskeg River, Horizon, and Kearl.

Highlights

Production data by project are reported in the ST39: Alberta Mineable Oil Sands Plant Statistics Monthly Supplement. The following are the 2023 highlights for mined bitumen production:

  • Production fluctuated throughout the year, primarily attributable to planned maintenance at several mining sites. 
  • Mine optimization was a priority for producers, as cost reduction measures and increased mine efficiencies improved productivity, leading to record production from a few mines. 
  • Kearl mine reported increased bitumen production in 2023 due to improved equipment productivity and plant reliability. Following the Kearl incident, Imperial has been working closely with the AER to implement the environmental protection order. 
  • Production at Suncor’s mines dropped marginally amid higher operating costs. They plan to implement cost-cutting measures and improve safety and efficiency to resolve underperformance.
  • There was some operator consolidation during the year. Suncor Energy acquired Total’s 31.23% working interest in the Fort Hills oil sands mine for $1.47 billion.

Forecast 2024 to 2033

A list of proposed projects considered in the forecast is included in the methodology section.

Mined bitumen production will continue to grow in 2024. By 2033, mined bitumen production is forecast to be 279.5 103 m3/d (1758.9 103 bbl/d). From 2024 onwards, the estimated average annual growth rate will be about 1%, lower than the average annual 6% growth rate observed during the past decade.

Most of the near-term growth will come from existing facility optimization due to improved market access, favourable market conditions, and increased productivity. Over the latter part of the forecast, expansions and debottlenecking projects will contribute to production growth.

Expansions, pit replacements, and debottlenecking benefit from the reduced cost of using existing infrastructure, labour, and materials. Producers will continue to explore and capitalize on cost-saving opportunities.

No new greenfield mines are expected to be constructed and become operational within the forecast period. Based on the crude bitumen supply costs estimates for 2023, the current price environment and more stringent environmental policies will not encourage the development of new mining projects.

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