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Updated June 2023

 

Figure S3.7 shows the historical and forecast of Alberta's demand and disposition of marketable bitumen.

Demand

In 2022

The five operating refineries in Alberta had a total processing capacity of 85.9 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d) or 540.6 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d) in 2022. Their combined utilization rate was nearly 100 per cent, handling an estimated daily average of 

  • 52.9 103 m3/d (332.9 103 bbl/d) of upgraded bitumen,
  • 9.7 103 m3/d (61.0 103 bbl/d) of nonupgraded bitumen,
  • 19.3 103 m3/d (121.4 103 bbl/d) of crude oil, and
  • 4.0 103 m3/d (25.2 103 bbl/d) of pentanes plus.

The total estimated Alberta demand in 2022 for upgraded and nonupgraded bitumen (which includes refinery demand and fuel demand from oil sands projects) was 70.4 103 m3/d (442.8 103 bbl/d), a 7.4 per cent increase from 2021. Since 2021, the Sturgeon refinery has mainly processed nonupgraded bitumen rather than upgraded bitumen.

Forecast for 2023 to 2032

Alberta’s demand for upgraded and nonupgraded bitumen is forecast to increase to 73.0 103 m3/d (459.6 103 bbl/d) by 2032. Most of the demand growth will happen in the first years of the forecast. Increased throughput at the Sturgeon refinery accounts for most of the demand growth. Upgraded bitumen continues to account for most of the total bitumen demand in the province.

Learn more about refineries in Alberta in the Plants and Facilities section.

Removals

In 2022

The breakdown of total oil removals in 2022 was as follows:

  • upgraded bitumen 120.3 103 m3/d (757.2 103 bbl/d)
  • nonupgraded bitumen 300.3 103 m3/d  (1889.8 103 bbl/d)
  • crude oil 58.0 103 m3/d (365.0 103 bbl/d)
  • pentanes plus as diluent 111.8 103 m3/d (703.6 103 bbl/d)

Upgraded bitumen removals decreased by 5.5 per cent as Alberta demand for synthetic crude oil rose by 10.8 per cent while production declined slightly. Nonupgraded removals increased by 9.3 per cent compared with 2021. This increase was mostly driven by the growth in nonupgraded bitumen production.

Forecast for 2023 to 2032

Upgraded and nonupgraded removals are expected to increase by 2032, alongside production and pipeline capacity over the forecast period, while Alberta’s demand remains relatively stable.

The following are the forecasted removals in 2032 and the per cent changes relative to 2022 levels:

  • upgraded bitumen 137.1 103 m3/d (863.0 103 bbl/d) (14 per cent increase)
  • nonupgraded bitumen 390/5 103 m3/d (2457.3 103 bbl/d) (30 per cent increase)
  • crude oil 63.5 103 m3/d (399.5 103 bbl/d) (9 per cent increase)
  • pentanes plus as diluent 152.7 103 m3/d (960.7 103 bbl/d) (37 per cent increase)

Upgraded and nonupgraded bitumen will continue to account for most of Alberta’s oil removals. Alberta’s crude bitumen removals are primarily sent to the U.S. by pipeline and rail.

Learn more about petroleum pipelines and rail transportation in Alberta in the Pipelines and Other Infrastructure section.

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