Upgraded Bitumen Production

Updated June 2024

Figure S3.3 shows the average daily production of upgraded bitumen in Alberta.

In 2023

Upgraded bitumen production increased by 4% to 188.2 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d) or 1184.3 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d). 

Highlights

Production data by project are reported in the ST39: Alberta Mineable Oil Sands Plant Statistics Monthly Supplement. The following are the 2023 highlights for upgraded bitumen production:

  • Upgraded bitumen production fluctuated throughout the year, primarily attributable to planned maintenance at the upgraders.
  • The Syncrude upgrader produced record levels of synthetic crude oil (SCO) in 2023 through operational efficiencies (sharing assets and integration of interconnecting pipelines between the Suncor base mine and Syncrude).
  • The Scotford upgrader achieved its highest growth in production from 2022 levels through operational efficiency.
  • With attractive margins on the sale of SCO, Suncor produced upgraded bitumen near its peak. The company achieved this by allocating part of its in situ production to the Base Mine upgrader and gaining operational efficiencies through its regional integration of the interconnecting pipelines. 

Table S3.3 shows upgraded bitumen production by upgrader.

Average daily Alberta upgraded bitumen production

Forecast for 2024 to 2033

A list of proposed projects considered in the forecast is included in the methodology section. Upgraded bitumen production volumes are expected to continue to grow in the near term, in line with favourable market conditions. By 2033, upgraded bitumen production is forecast to reach 196.8 103 m3/d (1238.3 103 bbl/d).

Most of the growth in upgraded production is expected to occur in the first years of the forecast. Operators are expected to maximize utilization rates and pursue optimization projects driven by attractive margins for SCO and favourable market conditions. 

As increases in raw bitumen production outpace marginal additions to upgrading capacity, the share of upgraded bitumen in Alberta is expected to decline from 41% in 2023 to 37% by 2033. No new upgrading facilities are assumed to come on stream during the forecast period. 

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