Updated June 2023
Within this section
Highlights of 2022
Henry Hub: The primary price benchmark for U.S. natural gas increased by 75 per cent in 2022, averaging US$6.52 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). The increase in the Henry Hub price was primarily attributable to Russian natural gas supply disruptions to Europe, leading to increased demand for liquid natural gas (LNG) exports and tight global supplies in the near term.
AECO-C: The AECO-C price benchmark for western Canadian natural gas increased 51 per cent from 2021 to an average of Cdn$5.10 per gigajoule (GJ) in 2022. The price increase was primarily attributed to higher demand and tight supply in the near term.
Price differential: The price differential between AECO-C and Henry Hub widened to $2.38/MMBtu in 2022, up from US$0.89/MMBtu in 2021.
Table S1.2 shows the historical and forecasted Henry Hub and AECO-C natural gas prices.
Highlights for 2023 to 2032
Henry Hub: The Henry Hub price is projected to decrease to US$3.10/MMBtu in 2023 and rebound to US$3.91/MMBtu by 2032. Long-term demand is anticipated to increase, primarily driven by growth in domestic demand, U.S. LNG and pipeline exports.
AECO-C: The AECO-C price is projected to decrease to Cdn$2.16/GJ in 2023 and rebound to Cdn$3.48/GJ by 2032.
Price differential: The price differential between AECO-C and Henry Hub reflects transportation costs, regional supply and demand balances, infrastructure constraints, and the U.S./Canadian dollar exchange rate. The AECO-C and Henry Hub price differential is anticipated to decrease from US$1.43/MMBtu in 2023 to US$0.90/MMBtu by 2025. The differential is projected to widen slowly to US$0.96/MMBtu by 2032.