Crude Bitumen - In Situ Production

Updated June 2024

Figure S3.1 shows the average daily production of raw bitumen in Alberta from in situ projects and surface mining.

In 2023

In situ bitumen production increased by 3.7% to 280.2 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d) or 1763.0 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d).

In situ production increases occurred across all recovery methods. As shown in Figure S3.2 and Table S3.2, all three oil sands areas contributed to the production growth. In situ production increases in 2023 were primarily attributable to growth in the Athabasca region. Production in the Cold Lake region increased significantly from record production levels by a few projects during the year.

Production of bitumen in Alberta

Highlights

Production data by project are reported in the ST53: Alberta In Situ Oil Sands Production Summary. The following are the 2023 highlights for in situ bitumen production:

  • In situ production continued to grow in 2023 with favourable oil prices.
  • With new investment focussed on existing sites rather than new projects, multiple in situ operations hit record production levels as productivity increased due to targeted facility enhancements, optimization of operations, and debottlenecking.
  • Activity rose in the Athabasca region, where most in situ bitumen production occurs. Suncor’s Firebag project added over 18 000 bbl/d of production following optimization of its operations. CNOOC restarted its Kinosis 1A steam generation facility and added new sustaining wells, which led to record production levels at Long Lake.
  • Production was up in the Cold Lake region, supported by increased production at the Primrose/Wolf Lake project. In this region, the focus remains on improving productivity through optimization projects and solvent injection technology.
  • Primary bitumen production advanced considerably in the Peace River region as companies, such as Baytex Energy, increased production.
  • Some consolidation occurred during the year, including ConocoPhillips’ acquisition of Total’s 50% share in the Surmont oilsands project for $4 billion.

Forecast for 2024 to 2033

A list of proposed projects considered in the forecast is included in the methodology section.

In situ bitumen production volumes are expected to grow in the near term, in line with oil price forecasts. (Table S3.1). By 2033, in situ bitumen output is forecast to be 348.8 103 m3/d (2194.8 103 bbl/d), representing an average annual growth of about 2.2%. 

Near-term production growth is based on favourable market conditions, producers optimizing operations, and expanding their existing facilities. Production growth is expected from approved projects coming online by the end of the decade.

Alberta crude bitumen production highlights

In situ production will continue to drive the forecast bitumen production growth, supported by pipeline capacity expansion. Takeaway capacity on the province’s pipeline infrastructure is forecast to improve in the next few years, with the Trans Mountain Expansion project scheduled to be in service in May 2024 and other pipeline enhancement projects, including Enbridge’s potential expansion of its Mainline pipeline and storage assets. Growth later in the forecast is supported by improved market access, higher oil prices, and operational optimization.

Based on 2023 crude bitumen supply costs estimates, in situ expansions continue to be a better economic option than new in situ projects or mining projects. Given the crude oil price forecasts, most new bitumen production will likely come from in situ expansions and debottlenecking projects.

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